New Seat Details - Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	23,353	50.9%
LAB	18,562	40.5%
UKIP	2,057	4.5%
LIB	1,447	3.2%
Green	265	0.6%
OTH	200	0.4%
CON Majority	4,791	10.4%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South: Map

List of old seats forming part of Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South

Old seat: Cleethorpes

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cleethorpes, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cleethorpes				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
North East Lincolnshire	Croft Baker	8,502	Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South	2,793	2,668	224	264	91	0	0	0	6,040
North East Lincolnshire	Haverstoe	8,218	Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South	3,196	1,405	244	215	31	0	0	0	5,091
North East Lincolnshire	Humberston and New Waltham	8,953	Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South	3,583	1,591	96	247	28	0	0	0	5,545
North East Lincolnshire	Immingham	8,529	Great Grimsby North and Barton	2,809	2,671	66	272	66	0	0	0	5,884
North East Lincolnshire	Sidney Sussex	7,837	Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South	2,925	3,025	198	292	99	0	0	0	6,539
North East Lincolnshire	Waltham	5,714	Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South	2,400	928	94	148	16	0	0	0	3,586
North East Lincolnshire	Wolds	5,791	Great Grimsby North and Barton	2,523	1,060	47	160	16	0	0	0	3,806
North Lincolnshire	Barton	8,430	Great Grimsby North and Barton	3,339	1,972	86	195	66	0	0	0	5,658
North Lincolnshire	Ferry	8,583	Great Grimsby North and Barton	3,754	1,603	56	228	57	0	0	0	5,698
	Total	70,557		27,322	16,923	1,111	2,021	470	0	0	0	47,847

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cleethorpes seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Great Grimsby

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Great Grimsby, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Great Grimsby				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
North East Lincolnshire	East Marsh	6,268	Great Grimsby North and Barton	1,672	2,659	116	221	0	0	0	78	4,746
North East Lincolnshire	Freshney	7,204	Great Grimsby North and Barton	1,739	1,955	63	175	0	0	0	27	3,959
North East Lincolnshire	Heneage	7,717	Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South	1,936	2,478	150	227	0	0	0	69	4,860
North East Lincolnshire	Park	8,587	Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South	2,413	1,977	204	241	0	0	0	43	4,878
North East Lincolnshire	Scartho	8,526	Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South	2,297	1,525	143	186	0	0	0	34	4,185
North East Lincolnshire	South	7,679	Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South	1,810	2,965	94	237	0	0	0	54	5,160
North East Lincolnshire	West Marsh	4,495	Great Grimsby North and Barton	1,162	1,726	34	147	0	0	0	54	3,123
North East Lincolnshire	Yarborough	8,521	Great Grimsby North and Barton	1,952	2,259	149	215	0	0	0	35	4,610
	Total	58,997		14,981	17,544	953	1,649	0	0	0	394	35,521

The full details of these calculations are given on the Great Grimsby seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South
North East Lincolnshire	Croft Baker	9,221	Cleethorpes	2,793	2,668	224	264	91	0	0	0	6,040
North East Lincolnshire	Haverstoe	7,773	Cleethorpes	3,196	1,405	244	215	31	0	0	0	5,091
North East Lincolnshire	Heneage	8,450	Great Grimsby	1,936	2,478	150	227	0	0	0	69	4,860
North East Lincolnshire	Humberston and New Waltham	8,466	Cleethorpes	3,583	1,591	96	247	28	0	0	0	5,545
North East Lincolnshire	Park	8,479	Great Grimsby	2,413	1,977	204	241	0	0	0	43	4,878
North East Lincolnshire	Scartho	7,273	Great Grimsby	2,297	1,525	143	186	0	0	0	34	4,185
North East Lincolnshire	Sidney Sussex	9,983	Cleethorpes	2,925	3,025	198	292	99	0	0	0	6,539
North East Lincolnshire	South	8,970	Great Grimsby	1,810	2,965	94	237	0	0	0	54	5,160
North East Lincolnshire	Waltham	5,475	Cleethorpes	2,400	928	94	148	16	0	0	0	3,586
	Total	74,090		23,353	18,562	1,447	2,057	265	0	0	200	45,884

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Martin Vickers (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,090
Turnout:	61.9%

Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Cleethorpes and Great Grimsby South: Overview

Introduction